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Yearly Archives: 2022

Covid-19 Case-Fatality Risk & Infection-Fatality Risk – important measures to help guide the pandemic response

Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 | carra86p | 7 Comments

Dr Jennifer Summers, Professor Michael Baker, Professor Nick Wilson*

Summers J, Baker M, Wilson N. Covid-19 Case-Fatality Risk & Infection-Fatality Risk: important measures to help guide the pandemic response. Public Health Expert Blog. 11 May 2022. https://blogs.otago.ac.nz/pubhealthexpert/covid-19-case-fatality-risk-infection-fatality-risk-important-measures-to-help-guide-the-pandemic-response/

In this blog we explore two useful mortality indicators: Case-Fatality Risk (CFR) and Infection-Fatality Risk (IFR). We estimate the cumulative CFR in Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ) to be around 0.08%, which is lower than other jurisdictions who have used elimination approaches in the past, such as Australia, Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong. The cumulative number of Covid-19 infections in NZ is not known, but if we assume it is ~50%, the IFR would sit at ~0.03%. We recommend that the NZ Government improve Covid-19 surveillance in order to improve estimates of CFR, IFR and other key indicators to help guide future decisions around control measures.

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Sustained Resilience: the impact of nuclear war on New Zealand and how to mitigate catastrophe

Wednesday, April 13th, 2022 | carra86p | 2 Comments

Dr Matt Boyd & Prof Nick Wilson* (Syndicated from the Adapt Research Blog)

Efforts to prevent nuclear war should be greatly intensified – but we must also consider what happens if prevention fails. NZ is often cited as somewhere most likely to preserve a thriving society through a nuclear aftermath. However, our society is a complex adaptive system heavily dependent on trade. Major perturbations triggered by nuclear war could shift the state of NZ society from one of flourishing to one of mere survival. We detail these risks of societal failure and conclude with a set of first steps NZ could take to strengthen its societal systems.

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The Omicron waves – Comparing Aotearoa NZ and Australia in four key graphs

Tuesday, April 12th, 2022 | carra86p | 3 Comments

Dr Jennifer Summers, Prof Michael Baker, Prof Nick Wilson*

Summers J, Baker M, Wilson N. The Omicron waves – Comparing Aotearoa NZ and Australia in four key graphs. Public Health Expert Blog. 12 April 2022. https://blogs.otago.ac.nz/pubhealthexpert/the-omicron-waves-comparing-aotearoa-nz-and-australia-in-four-key-graphs/

In this blog we explore the first Covid-19 Omicron variant waves in Australia and Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ). We find that Australia’s first Omicron wave resulted in higher hospitalisation and ICU occupancy compared to NZ. However, when examining the Auckland region compared with the rest of NZ, Auckland’s experience of the first Omicron wave is more severe, with a higher hospitalisation rate. We recommend that the NZ Government does more to prepare for a possible second Omicron wave (as in Australia) and for future variants of concern. Priority areas are increasing vaccination coverage and improving mask use and indoor ventilation.

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Junk food and sugar-sweetened beverage taxes: Likely to produce numerous benefits in NZ

Monday, April 11th, 2022 | carra86p | No Comments

Dr Leah Grout, Dr Nhung Nghiem, Dr Christine Cleghorn*

Grout L, Nghiem N, Cleghorn C. Junk food and sugar-sweetened beverage taxes: Likely to produce numerous benefits in NZ. Public Health Expert Blog. 11 April 2022. https://blogs.otago.ac.nz/pubhealthexpert/junk-food-and-sugar-sweetened-beverage-taxes-likely-to-produce-numerous-benefits-in-nz/

Poor diet is a major risk factor for excess weight gain and obesity-related diseases, including cardiovascular diseases, type 2 diabetes mellitus, osteoarthritis, and multiple cancers. In this blog we summarise our recent modelling work that suggests that the implementation of taxes on unhealthy foods and beverages in Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ) will lead to health gains, health system cost-savings, and reductions in health inequalities.

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Smoking denormalization and tobacco endgames

Thursday, March 24th, 2022 | carra86p | No Comments

Janet Hoek, Richard Edwards, Andrew Waa*

Once a common practice, smoking prevalence has declined since its peak in the 1960s, after the serious health risks it poses became clear. Government policies and social marketing campaigns have progressively reduced smoking’s acceptability; however, slow reductions in prevalence have seen inequities persist and led some governments to adopt tobacco endgame strategies that rapidly reduce smoking prevalence by a specific date. Achieving endgame goals will bring profound health benefits but face opposition. Tobacco companies have simultaneously opposed core endgame measures, attempted to metamorphose into public health allies, and tried to shape social norms by framing smoking is a personal choice. In this blog, we expand on research exploring smoking’s trajectory and declining social acceptability, and consider challenges that tobacco endgame strategists will need to address.

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