A bit like a letter home. I have now been full-time at the University of Melbourne since 2019. Before that, I was 20 years at the University of Otago, Wellington. Indeed, I set up this very Public Health Expert Blog with Nick Wilson ten years ago. Now I am your Australian correspondent.
Dr Jaijus Pallippadan-Johny1, Dr John McDermott2, Rodney Jones1 and Michael Duddin1 (1 Wigram Capital Advisors, Auckland; 2Motu Economic and Policy Research, Wellington)
In this blog, we introduce our modelling approach to estimating the transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, the cause of the COVID-19 pandemic. We demonstrate the usefulness of the Wallinga model for the calculation of the effective reproduction number and show the major impact of the lockdown on containing the pandemic in New Zealand.
Prof Nick Wilson, Dr Sophie Febery, Dr Ling Chan, Dr Amanda Kvalsvig, Prof Michael Baker
In this blog we identify six likely benefits from requiring fabric mask use in public transportation and border control settings in the “peri-elimination” context that New Zealand is currently in. Given these likely benefits and the relatively low costs (especially if the Government provides free masks as per Hong Kong), such a policy should be given very serious consideration by health authorities in the transition to level 2.
Prof Michael Baker, Prof Nick Wilson, Prof Shaun Hendy, Prof David Skegg
New Zealand is making good progress towards its elimination goal for COVID-19 at the country-level. In this blog we present the case for a scientific definition of elimination to help guide our national COVID-19 response. The definition must be objectively verifiable, with appropriate levels of testing and surveillance systems in place. It should ideally be refined in collaboration with Australian health authorities, as part of a strategy of opening up our shared borders for easier travel between the two countries.
Gordon Purdie, Nick Wilson, Michael G Baker
In this blog we analyse data from the Ministry of Health’s COVID-19 website and display a key graph that we think should be routinely on that website. We also detail a potentially more useful way to categorise case data so that the public and research community can better track progress on the path to COVID-19 elimination. Both the graphical and tabular presentation of case data need to emphasise the critical distinction between imported cases (who should be safely isolated in supervised quarantine facilities) and transmission within NZ that would threaten elimination status.