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Yearly Archives: 2022

Promoting physical activity through the prescription of smartphone apps in primary care: Likely to produce health gains and cost-savings

Tuesday, February 22nd, 2022 | carra86p | No Comments

Dr Leah Grout, Kendra Telfer, Dr Cristina Cleghorn, Prof Nick Wilson, Dr Anja Mizdrak*

Over 40% of NZ adults are insufficiently physically active. In this blog we summarise our recently published modelling work that suggests that the prescription of smartphone apps for physical activity promotion in primary care could benefit health and save millions in health sector costs for NZ. Nevertheless, this type of intervention should ideally occur in conjunction with societal-wide shifts that support more walking and cycling, as these are likely to generate much larger health gains and cost-savings.

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COVID-19 hospitalisation peaks in Australian States since Omicron emerged: potential relevance to Aotearoa NZ

Friday, February 4th, 2022 | Nick Wilson | No Comments

Dr Jennifer Summers, Prof Nick Wilson, Prof Michael Baker*

In this blog we examine the hospitalisation and ICU burden from the recent waves of COVID-19 in Australia, dominated by the Omicron variant. The peak in hospitalisations in Australia during the months of December 2021 and January 2022 occurred on 19 January with 5,302 people in hospital. ICU numbers also peaked on the 19 January at 424 people. Applying the Australian experience to NZ on a per capita basis would suggest peaks of 1,107 people in NZ hospitals and 90 people in ICUs. We also discuss the value and limitations of using the Australian experience to inform planning for the developing NZ Omicron wave.

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Protecting New Zealand children from the developing Omicron outbreak

Tuesday, January 25th, 2022 | carra86p | No Comments

Amanda Kvalsvig, Nick Wilson, Carmen Timu-Parata, Belinda Tuari-Toma, Jennifer Summers, Cheryl Davies, Constanza Jackson, Julie Bennett, and Michael G. Baker*

Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ) is likely to soon be experiencing widespread community transmission caused by the Omicron variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. In this blog we outline what is needed to protect the health and wellbeing of children (ie, those under 18 years) in this outbreak. Key principles include taking a whānau-centred, not a school system-centred approach; actively addressing inequities in risk and impact; and taking a precautionary approach to potential long-term harms. Māori leadership at policy and community level will be needed to ensure that children will be safe in all settings during an Omicron outbreak.

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Potential Impact of an Omicron Outbreak: A Look at the IHME Modelling for NZ

Friday, January 21st, 2022 | carra86p | 3 Comments

Prof Nick Wilson, Dr Jennifer Summers, Dr Amanda Kvalsvig, Prof Michael Baker*

In this blog we summarise the results of modelling for an Omicron variant outbreak of Covid-19 in NZ by the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation. This work suggests that in an outbreak that begins in January, the number of cases in hospital might peak at 2,790 (95%CI: 120 to 9,070) in early March 2022. Cumulative additional deaths might be 400 by 1 May, near the end of the outbreak (peaking at 10 deaths per day [95%CI: 0 to 50]). While there are various limitations and uncertainties with all such modelling, our impression is that this work is of high quality and should be considered by NZ policy-makers. But other factors, such as the social and economic disruption from such an Omicron outbreak, should also be important considerations in guiding preparations and preventive measures.

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Preparing for Omicron: A proactive Government response is urgently needed to minimise harms

Monday, January 17th, 2022 | carra86p | 2 Comments

Prof Michael Baker, Dr Jennifer Summers, Dr Amanda Kvalsvig, Dr Matire Harwood, Prof Nick Wilson*

In this blog we summarise how Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ) could improve preparations for a likely national outbreak of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 to minimise harms to health and the economy. The first urgent priority is to increase measures to delay the arrival of the Omicron variant to give more preparation time. We also need to consider an explicit shift from the current suppression strategy to mitigation. A clear mitigation strategy will favour adjustments to existing public health and social measures to ‘flatten the curve’ and minimise the risk of health service overload and social and economic disruptions.

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